Oviedo

Oviedo Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-43
Luck Index Score

Oviedo can't catch a break. 21 points when they deserve 27.65? That's 6.65 points stolen by the football gods. 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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21
Points
Expected: 27.65
20
Goals Scored
xG: 28.19
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.47
6.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 25 · 2026-02-28 · vs Atletico Madrid · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Atletico Madrid

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Oviedo. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
90'J. Alvarez scores for Atletico Madrid
1.1
xG Created
0.97
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-02-28 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.1-0.97
MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.34-1.37
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Levante · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 2-4 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 1.34-1.82

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.45-1.1
MW7 · 2025-09-30 · vs Valencia · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.51
MW28 · 2026-03-14 · vs Valencia · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-0.61

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-14
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 fewer goals than their 28.2 xG - wasting chances
-14
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (114 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 48.5 xGA opponents generated
0
Total Luck Index-43

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Oviedo are deeply cursed at -43. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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