Padres are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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1
Wins
Expected: 1
9
Runs Scored
Expected: 1
16
Runs Allowed
0
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.283 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-34
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.48 vs xERA 3.46 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-14
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-10
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-7
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-65
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Padres are deeply cursed at -65. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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