Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+31
Luck Index Score

Paris Saint Germain have had fortune smiling on them. 6.68 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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63
Points
Expected: 56.32
61
Goals Scored
xG: 58.13
23
Goals Conceded
xGA: 23.28
6.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · away
1-3
Lost away against Rennes

A defeat that defied the run of play. Paris Saint Germain created 3.58 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Rennes generated just 1.36 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Paris Saint Germain. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
34'M. Tamari scores for Rennes
69'E. Lepaul scores for Rennes (assist: S. Szymanski)
72'O. Dembele scores for Paris Saint Germain
81'B. Embolo scores for Rennes (assist: L. Blas)
3.58
xG Created
1.36
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 3.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 3.58-1.36
MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Monaco · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.52
MW25 · 2026-03-06 · vs Monaco · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.62-1.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Strasbourg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.31
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.07-1.16
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Lille · Home+1.4 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.4-1.14

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+13
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 58.1 xG - clinical finishing
+10
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 23.3 xGA opponents generated
-1
Total Luck Index+30

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris Saint Germain are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches
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04-22
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04-25
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05-03
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05-09
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Stade Brestois 29
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