Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-34
Luck Index Score

Pittsburgh Penguins are getting roughly what they deserve. 92 points vs 93.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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92
Points
Expected: 93.3
266
Goals For
Expected: 93.3
244
Goals Against
1.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · away
3-4
Lost away against Anaheim Ducks

One of those games where nothing went right. Pittsburgh Penguins created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Pittsburgh Penguins. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW14 · 2025-11-03 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW17 · 2025-11-09 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-26 · vs Ottawa Senators · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Ottawa Senators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW69 · 2026-03-21 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW66 · 2026-03-14 · vs Utah Mammoth · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Utah Mammoth 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
12-23 in one-goal games (34% win rate vs expected 50%)
-21
Shootout Record
3-10 in shootouts (net -7)
-21
OT Loss Rate
16 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+15
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-7
Total Luck Index-34

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -34, Pittsburgh Penguins are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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