Portland Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+13
Luck Index Score

Portland Trail Blazers are getting roughly what they deserve. 40 points vs 37.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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40
Wins
Expected: 37.8
8998
Points For
Expected: 37.8
9037
Points Against
2.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 15 · 2025-11-20 · vs Chicago Bulls · at home
121-122
Lost at home against Chicago Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. Portland Trail Blazers created 121 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 121 goals on an average day. They scored 121. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Portland Trail Blazers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

121
xG Created
122
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-11-20 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 121-122 to Chicago Bulls. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 121-122 | xG: 121-122
MW1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Minnesota Timberwolves 114-118.
Score: 114-118 | xG: 114-118
MW9 · 2025-11-09 · vs Miami Heat · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 131-136.
Score: 131-136 | xG: 131-136

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW38 · 2026-01-08 · vs Houston Rockets · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Houston Rockets 103-102. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 103-102 | xG: 103-102
MW27 · 2025-12-19 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Sacramento Kings 134-133. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 134-133 | xG: 134-133
MW71 · 2026-03-21 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 108-104.
Score: 108-104 | xG: 108-104

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts
+13
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.2% below expected from shot locations (53.3% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-9
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+8
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+1
Total Luck Index+13

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Portland Trail Blazers are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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