Rayo Vallecano are the definition of "we deserved more." With 35 points from 43.56 expected, they've been robbed of 8.56 points this season. 11 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 12 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Rayo Vallecano generated 1.89 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Sevilla generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Rayo Vallecano. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsRayo Vallecano are deeply cursed at -47. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.