Real Betis are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 46.07 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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44
Points
Expected: 46.07
44
Goals Scored
xG: 43.72
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.04
2.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Getafe · away
0-2
Lost away against Getafe
One of those games where nothing went right. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.37 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Real Betis. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
28'Kiko Femenia scores for Getafe
45'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: A. Abqar)
1.11
xG Created
0.37
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Getafe · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.11-0.37
MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.07-0.6
MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Alaves · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.38-1.27
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Espanyol · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.4-2.28
MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.7-0.67
MW22 · 2026-02-01 · vs Valencia · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.87-1.9
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+13
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 34.0 xGA opponents generated
-9
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (139 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 0 more goals than their 43.7 xG - clinical finishing
+3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
0
Total Luck Index-1
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|9 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Real Betis are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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