Real Madrid

Real Madrid Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+28
Luck Index Score

Real Madrid have been living on borrowed time. 69 points from 58.02 expected? They're 10.98 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

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69
Points
Expected: 58.02
63
Goals Scored
xG: 64.27
26
Goals Conceded
xGA: 31.79
11
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Getafe

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Real Madrid generated 1.91 xG, comfortably more than the 0.49 their opponent managed. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.49 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Real Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
39'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: M. Arambarri)
90+5'Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid) - Red Card
90+7'Adrian Liso (Getafe) - Red Card
1.91
xG Created
0.49
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Getafe · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.91-0.49
MW16 · 2025-12-07 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.46-1.55
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Girona · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.53-0.79

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-06 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.86-1.04
MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.42-2.23
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Espanyol · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.18-0.96

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
11 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+22
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+11
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 31.8 xGA opponents generated
+8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (160 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 64.3 xG - wasting chances
-1
Total Luck Index+29

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Madrid are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches
04-04
A
Mallorca
Bet
04-10
H
Girona
Bet
04-22
H
Alaves
Bet
04-25
A
Real Betis
Bet
05-03
A
Espanyol
Bet
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