Rennes

Rennes Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+36
Luck Index Score

Rennes have had fortune smiling on them. 6.3 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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44
Points
Expected: 37.7
43
Goals Scored
xG: 39.57
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.1
6.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Nice

A defeat that defied the run of play. Rennes generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 0.73 their opponent managed. Nice generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Rennes. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
38'S. Diop scores for Nice (assist: J. Clauss)
45'J. Clauss scores for Nice
67'A. Ait Boudlal scores for Rennes (assist: P. Frankowski)
1.74
xG Created
0.73
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Nice · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-0.73
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lorient · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.76-1.29
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Lens · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.5-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.36-3.58
MW12 · 2025-11-07 · vs Paris FC · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.75-1.98
MW14 · 2025-11-28 · vs Metz · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.02

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 39.6 xG - clinical finishing
+11
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+10
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 40.1 xGA opponents generated
+3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3
Total Luck Index+37

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rennes are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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