Sacramento Kings

Sacramento Kings Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+19
Luck Index Score

Sacramento Kings are getting roughly what they deserve. 21 points vs 18 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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21
Wins
Expected: 18
8654
Points For
Expected: 18
9434
Points Against
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 27 · 2025-12-19 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · away
133-134
Lost away against Portland Trail Blazers

One of those games where nothing went right. Sacramento Kings created 133 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 133 goals on an average day. They scored 133. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Sacramento Kings. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

133
xG Created
134
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-12-19 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 133-134 to Portland Trail Blazers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 133-134 | xG: 133-134
MW1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Phoenix Suns 116-120.
Score: 116-120 | xG: 116-120
MW37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 98-100 to Dallas Mavericks. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 98-100 | xG: 98-100

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2025-12-22 · vs Houston Rockets · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Houston Rockets 125-124. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 125-124 | xG: 125-124
MW2 · 2025-10-25 · vs Utah Jazz · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Utah Jazz 105-104. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 105-104 | xG: 105-104
MW78 · 2026-04-04 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.4 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 117-113.
Score: 117-113 | xG: 117-113

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their point differential predicts
+17
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 2.2% below expected from shot locations (52.4% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
-17
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+11
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+8
Total Luck Index+19

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sacramento Kings are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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