San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+29
Luck Index Score

San Antonio Spurs are getting roughly what they deserve. 59 points vs 56.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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59
Wins
Expected: 56.6
9208
Points For
Expected: 56.6
8558
Points Against
2.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-15 · vs Golden State Warriors · at home
108-109
Lost at home against Golden State Warriors

One of those games where nothing went right. San Antonio Spurs created 108 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 108 goals on an average day. They scored 108. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for San Antonio Spurs. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

108
xG Created
109
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-15 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 108-109 to Golden State Warriors. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 108-109 | xG: 108-109
MW37 · 2026-01-07 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 105-106 to Memphis Grizzlies. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 105-106 | xG: 105-106
MW40 · 2026-01-12 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 103-104 to Minnesota Timberwolves. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 103-104 | xG: 103-104

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW71 · 2026-03-20 · vs Phoenix Suns · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Phoenix Suns 101-100. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 101-100 | xG: 101-100
MW69 · 2026-03-17 · vs LA Clippers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat LA Clippers 119-115.
Score: 119-115 | xG: 119-115
MW64 · 2026-03-07 · vs LA Clippers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat LA Clippers 116-112.
Score: 116-112 | xG: 116-112

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts
+14
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.4% above expected from shot locations (55.9% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+10
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+9
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-5
Total Luck Index+28

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

San Antonio Spurs are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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