Seattle Kraken Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-20

Luck Index Score

Seattle Kraken are getting roughly what they deserve. 75 points vs 74.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 74.2

208

Goals For

Expected: 74.2

233

Goals Against

0.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season

Matchweek 26 · 2025-12-06 · vs Detroit Red Wings · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Detroit Red Wings

One of those games where nothing went right. Seattle Kraken created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Seattle Kraken. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2025-12-06 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

MW29 · 2025-12-12 · vs Utah Mammoth · Away-0.8 pts

Lost to Utah Mammoth 3-5.

Score: 3-5 | xG: 3-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW22 · 2025-11-23 · vs New York Islanders · Away+1.0 pts

Shut out on the road against New York Islanders. 1 goals conceded, 0 scored.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0-1

MW71 · 2026-03-26 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW39 · 2026-01-02 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Vancouver Canucks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record

1-6 in shootouts (net -5)

-15

Close Games

12-16 in one-goal games (43% win rate vs expected 50%)

-10

Pythagorean Delta

1 more points than their goal differential predicts

OT Loss Rate

11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

Total Luck Index-20

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -20, Seattle Kraken are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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