St. Louis Blues

St. Louis Blues Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+10
Luck Index Score

St. Louis Blues have had fortune smiling on them. 4.3 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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76
Points
Expected: 71.7
202
Goals For
Expected: 71.7
236
Goals Against
4.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 53 · 2026-01-27 · vs Dallas Stars · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Dallas Stars

One of those games where nothing went right. St. Louis Blues created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for St. Louis Blues. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW53 · 2026-01-27 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW56 · 2026-02-02 · vs Nashville Predators · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6 | xG: 5-6
MW57 · 2026-02-04 · vs Dallas Stars · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW54 · 2026-01-29 · vs Florida Panthers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Florida Panthers 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW42 · 2026-01-02 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW30 · 2025-12-07 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more points than their goal differential predicts
+22
Shootout Record
1-4 in shootouts (net -3)
-9
Close Games
17-20 in one-goal games (46% win rate vs expected 50%)
-5
OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2
Total Luck Index+10

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

St. Louis Blues are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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