Stade Brestois 29 are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 38.44 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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36
Points
Expected: 38.44
34
Goals Scored
xG: 37.57
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.94
2.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Paris FC
A defeat that defied the run of play. Stade Brestois 29 created 2.57 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Stade Brestois 29. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
14'W. Geubbels scores for Paris FC (assist: M. Lopez)
34'V. Marchetti scores for Paris FC (assist: W. Geubbels)
52'R. Del Castillo scores for Stade Brestois 29
84'Otávio (Paris FC) - Red Card
2.57
xG Created
1.55
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris FC · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.57-1.55
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Toulouse · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1-0.37
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Nantes · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.51-0.15
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW24 · 2026-03-01 · vs Metz · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.87-1.52
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-1.69
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Nice · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.03-2.33
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+10
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 37.6 xG - wasting chances
-7
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 37.9 xGA opponents generated
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1
Total Luck Index-3
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|11 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Stade Brestois 29 are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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