Sunderland

Sunderland Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+33
Luck Index Score

Sunderland have been living on borrowed time. 43 points from 33.21 expected? They're 9.79 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

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43
Points
Expected: 33.21
32
Goals Scored
xG: 30.31
36
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.21
9.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 27 · 2026-02-22 · vs Fulham · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Fulham

One of those games where nothing went right. Sunderland generated 1.85 xG, comfortably more than the 1.88 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Sunderland. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
54'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham (assist: A. Iwobi)
61'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham
76'E. Le Fee scores for Sunderland
85'A. Iwobi scores for Fulham (assist: H. Wilson)
1.85
xG Created
1.88
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-02-22 · vs Fulham · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.85-1.88
MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Burnley · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.77-1
MW30 · 2026-03-14 · vs Brighton · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.9-1.7.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.9-1.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Bournemouth · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.28-1.7
MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Leeds · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.86-1.15
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Wolves · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.65-0.83

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+19
Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 45.2 xGA opponents generated
+11
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (169 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 30.3 xG - clinical finishing
+4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total Luck Index+32

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sunderland are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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