Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-39
Luck Index Score

Tampa Bay Lightning can't catch a break. 100 points when they deserve 106.8? That's 6.8 points stolen by the football gods. 28 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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100
Points
Expected: 106.8
274
Goals For
Expected: 106.8
210
Goals Against
6.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Ottawa Senators

One of those games where nothing went right. Tampa Bay Lightning created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Tampa Bay Lightning. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

4
xG Created
5
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW27 · 2025-12-04 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW57 · 2026-02-26 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW54 · 2026-02-03 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW53 · 2026-02-01 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5
MW39 · 2025-12-31 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Anaheim Ducks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-36
Shootout Record
4-2 in shootouts (net +2)
+6
Close Games
13-15 in one-goal games (46% win rate vs expected 50%)
-5
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-4
Total Luck Index-39

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -39, Tampa Bay Lightning are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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