Utah Jazz are getting roughly what they deserve. 21 points vs 21.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT
21
Wins
Expected: 21.4
9139
Points For
Expected: 21.4
9799
Points Against
0.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 2 · 2025-10-25 · vs Sacramento Kings · away
104-105
Lost away against Sacramento Kings
One of those games where nothing went right. Utah Jazz created 104 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 104 goals on an average day. They scored 104. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Utah Jazz. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.
104
xG Created
105
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW2 · 2025-10-25 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 104-105 to Sacramento Kings. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 104-105 | xG: 104-105
MW27 · 2025-12-21 · vs Orlando Magic · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 127-128 to Orlando Magic. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 127-128 | xG: 127-128
MW4 · 2025-10-30 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 134-136 to Portland Trail Blazers. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 134-136 | xG: 134-136
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW65 · 2026-03-10 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Golden State Warriors 119-116. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 119-116 | xG: 119-116
MW54 · 2026-02-10 · vs Miami Heat · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Miami Heat 115-111.
Score: 115-111 | xG: 115-111
MW44 · 2026-01-21 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 127-122.
Score: 127-122 | xG: 127-122
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.9% below expected from shot locations (53.6% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-7
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
-1
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-1
Total Luck Index-4
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|4 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Utah Jazz are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT