Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver Canucks Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-20
Luck Index Score

Vancouver Canucks are getting roughly what they deserve. 52 points vs 54 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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52
Points
Expected: 54
197
Goals For
Expected: 54
288
Goals Against
2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-25 · vs Montréal Canadiens · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Montréal Canadiens

One of those games where nothing went right. Vancouver Canucks created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Vancouver Canucks. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-25 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW49 · 2026-01-19 · vs New York Islanders · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW51 · 2026-01-23 · vs New Jersey Devils · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-04-01 · vs Colorado Avalanche · Away+0.9 pts
Beat Colorado Avalanche 8-6.
Score: 8-6 | xG: 8-6
MW65 · 2026-03-12 · vs Nashville Predators · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Nashville Predators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW50 · 2026-01-21 · vs Washington Capitals · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Washington Capitals 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-10
Close Games
12-16 in one-goal games (43% win rate vs expected 50%)
-9
Shootout Record
5-2 in shootouts (net +3)
+9
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-9
Total Luck Index-19

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Vancouver Canucks are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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