Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-43
Luck Index Score

Vegas Golden Knights are getting roughly what they deserve. 84 points vs 87 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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84
Points
Expected: 87
242
Goals For
Expected: 87
239
Goals Against
3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 34 · 2025-12-21 · vs Edmonton Oilers · away
3-4
Lost away against Edmonton Oilers

One of those games where nothing went right. Vegas Golden Knights created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Vegas Golden Knights. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2025-12-21 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Edmonton Oilers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW39 · 2026-01-02 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW49 · 2026-01-22 · vs Boston Bruins · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Boston Bruins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW46 · 2026-01-15 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5
MW41 · 2026-01-06 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
14-26 in one-goal games (35% win rate vs expected 50%)
-20
Shootout Record
1-7 in shootouts (net -6)
-18
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-16
OT Loss Rate
16 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+11
Total Luck Index-43

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Vegas Golden Knights are deeply cursed at -43. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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