Washington Capitals

Washington Capitals Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-51
Luck Index Score

Washington Capitals can't catch a break. 85 points when they deserve 89.9? That's 4.9 points stolen by the football gods. 38 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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85
Points
Expected: 89.9
241
Goals For
Expected: 89.9
230
Goals Against
4.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 6 · 2025-10-19 · vs Vancouver Canucks · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Vancouver Canucks

One of those games where nothing went right. Washington Capitals created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Washington Capitals. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-19 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Ottawa Senators · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW51 · 2026-01-21 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-28 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW56 · 2026-01-31 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Carolina Hurricanes 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW55 · 2026-01-29 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-26
Shootout Record
2-6 in shootouts (net -4)
-12
Close Games
12-17 in one-goal games (41% win rate vs expected 50%)
-11
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
-2
Total Luck Index-51

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Washington Capitals are deeply cursed at -51. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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