Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+17
Luck Index Score

Washington Wizards are getting roughly what they deserve. 17 points vs 15.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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17
Wins
Expected: 15.5
8567
Points For
Expected: 15.5
9449
Points Against
1.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · away
120-121
Lost away against Chicago Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. Washington Wizards created 120 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 120 goals on an average day. They scored 120. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Washington Wizards. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

120
xG Created
121
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 120-121 to Chicago Bulls. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 120-121 | xG: 120-121
MW4 · 2025-10-28 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 134-139.
Score: 134-139 | xG: 134-139
MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 135-137 | xG: 135-137

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-01-01 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Milwaukee Bucks 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113
MW48 · 2026-02-01 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 116-112.
Score: 116-112 | xG: 116-112
MW45 · 2026-01-28 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Portland Trail Blazers 115-111.
Score: 115-111 | xG: 115-111

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts
+9
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+9
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.9% below expected from shot locations (53.6% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-7
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+6
Total Luck Index+17

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Washington Wizards are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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