Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Jets Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-31
Luck Index Score

Winnipeg Jets are getting roughly what they deserve. 76 points vs 77.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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76
Points
Expected: 77.9
213
Goals For
Expected: 77.9
231
Goals Against
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Dallas Stars · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Dallas Stars

One of those games where nothing went right. Winnipeg Jets created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Winnipeg Jets. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

4
xG Created
5
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW20 · 2025-11-21 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW22 · 2025-11-26 · vs Washington Capitals · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Washington Capitals. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-31 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW52 · 2026-01-27 · vs New Jersey Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW45 · 2026-01-13 · vs New York Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
14-24 in one-goal games (37% win rate vs expected 50%)
-17
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-10
Shootout Record
2-4 in shootouts (net -2)
-6
OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2
Total Luck Index-31

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Winnipeg Jets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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